Geopolitical scenario modelling
Bespoke, AI-powered geopolitical forecasts, built by modelling how states and non-state actors respond to one another under changing conditions.
Most crisis coverage stops at the first move. The decisions that matter come after it. States rarely repeat themselves exactly: they respond to incentives, leaders, domestic pressure, their own credibility and a strategic picture that keeps shifting. Pre-Emptive Diplomacy models those forces, with the historical record as one input among them.
Live scenario 02 · Red Sea and the Gulf
Profiles reviewed12 October 2026
HorizonNext 30 days
StatusIllustrative estimates
01 Actor model · What is driving Riyadh now
Trigger · October 2026
Houthi missiles hit Saudi airports, including Riyadh's, and kill civilians. The coalition says the attacks "will not go unpunished."
02 Riyadh's strategy
03 Outcome, next 30 days
Band width shows probability. Strategies combine a military posture with a diplomatic track, so they can overlap in practice; each strategy here is one complete combination. Several strategies can lead to the same outcome. Strategies and outcomes each sum to 100%.
Illustrative estimates for the prototype, set by analyst judgement.
Context as of 12 October 2026: Al Jazeera, Aug 2026 · FDD Long War Journal, Aug 2026 · TIME, Oct 2026 · Al Jazeera, Oct 2026 · Saudi Arabia in the 2026 Iran war
Method
Build actor models
Evidence-grounded profiles of states and non-state actors: their objectives, capabilities, constraints, historical behaviour, strategic relationships and responses to pressure.
Simulate interactions
AI evaluates how actors may respond to an initial event, and how each response changes the choices available to everyone else.
Estimate outcomes
Plausible sequences are compared and given relative probabilities, with the assumptions, evidence and uncertainties behind each estimate set out in full.
From ranking branches by how closely they match history
To estimating how likely each outcome is, given the conditions now
Forecasts are probabilities, not certainties. Every assessment states its time horizon, its confidence and the date its actor models were last reviewed.
About
I have spent my career reading places: what they are worth, how people move through them, and what they mean to those who hold them. Pre-Emptive Diplomacy puts that to work on the hardest question in geopolitics.
Hajar Ali, founder
Dubai · 2026
I was living in Dubai when the Iran war broke out. I repatriated home to Singapore.
"Then what?" stopped being a seminar question. It became the one I wanted to answer properly.
Geopolitical crises are rarely defined by a single decision. They unfold through sequences of action, reaction, miscalculation and restraint.
Pre-Emptive Diplomacy was founded to explore whether AI can make those sequences more intelligible and, over time, more predictable.
Compare escalation pathways and test how policy choices could change a crisis.
See how a crisis could spread into political violence, supply chains and underwriting risk.
Assess route access, port operations and escalation around critical chokepoints.
Understand the exposure of people, operations, investments and regional continuity.
A regional confrontation. A threatened chokepoint. An election with reach beyond its borders. We build bespoke forecasts around the questions that matter to you: modelling the actors, testing moves and countermoves, and estimating the probability of each outcome.